Architects of the Future - the SHIFT Method
Why Strategic Foresight Practitioners Rewatch This 64-Minute SHIFT Method Framework Shell oil crisis preparation success: "Shell back 1970s while most oil companies focused forecasting prices optimizing productions did something different, built detailed scenarios different possible futures, one scenario explored what would happen oil producing nations suddenly restricted supply pressure western governments, when 73 oil crisis hit OPEC imposed embargo oil prices quadrupled overnight Shell was ready, had contingency plans flexible supply chains strategic reserves thrived while competitors scrambled." Kodak digital camera invention failure: "1975 Steve Sasson Kodak engineer invented first digital camera, company saw signal knew digital was coming but made choice fatal choice, decided protect their film business instead cannibalizing it, had future in their hands decided ignore it, Kodak bankrupt 2012 massive layoff employed 60,000 people Rochester now employ about 3,000." SHIFT method signal mapping: "S signals signal mapping systemically scanning weak signals early signals like just talked about, not just reading more news about knowing where to look what to look for, Shell when doing this back 60s other companies only focused geology production, mapping political social signals knew areas outside business would impact them, noticed rising nationalism oil producing countries growing environmental awareness shifting geopolitical alliances." STEEPLE framework categorization: "Social changes demographics values behaviors cultural patterns, Technological AI agents making autonomous purchases brain computer interfaces moving medical applications consumer productivity tools, Economic companies paying customers data carbon removal becoming profitable industry, Environmental vertical farms appearing urban neighborhoods, Political AI systems granted legal rights personhood jurisdictions, Legal algorithmic transparency laws require companies explain AI decisions." 2x2 scenario matrix method: "Take two critical uncertainties from signals, two things not sure don't know will happen not, explore what kind futures create, future work uncertainty one role AI uncertainty two work organization, will augment human capabilities replace human workers, work become centralized traditional companies distributed people working platforms freelancing." 5 Key Timestamps: [01:51] The Shell Foresight Success Story – Shell 1970s built detailed scenarios different possible futures one explored oil nations restricted supply, 73 crisis OPEC embargo prices quadrupled Shell ready had contingency plans flexible supply chains thrived competitors scrambled [05:43] The Kodak Digital Camera Failure – 1975 Kodak engineer invented first digital camera saw signal knew digital coming but decided protect film business instead cannibalizing, had future hands decided ignore bankrupt 2012 employed 60,000 now 3,000 [13:10] The SHIFT Method Signal Mapping – S signals systemically scanning weak signals not just reading news knowing where look what look for, Shell back 60s mapping political social signals noticed rising nationalism oil countries environmental awareness geopolitical alliances [19:39] The STEEPLE Framework Signal Categories – Social demographics values behaviors, Technological AI agents brain computer interfaces, Economic companies paying customers data carbon removal profitable, Environmental vertical farms urban, Political AI legal rights, Legal algorithmic transparency laws [29:36] The 2x2 Scenario Matrix Method – Take two critical uncertainties from signals things not sure don't know will happen, future work uncertainty role AI uncertainty work organization, augment human capabilities replace workers, centralized traditional companies distributed platforms freelancing
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