Getting Unstuck from a Single Strategy - Close Up Scenarios Spark Innovation
Why Strategic Planning Facilitators Rewatch This 43-Minute Scenario Planning Masterclass CEOs reject scenario planning because they think "exploring multiple futures lets the team off the hook"—they want single clear direction and successful execution. Dr. Peter Compo reveals the fatal confusion: "Every scenario doesn't get its own strategy. You only get ONE strategy, and it's at the mercy of all future scenarios." The external vs. internal distinction at 08:31 exposes thinking clarity: scenarios are things you can't control (earthquakes, interest rates, regulations) while internal developments you influence (product success, team capability). Never forecast an invention—but always overlay external scenarios onto internal assessments for complete strategic view. The 10-minute integration technique at 32:29 destroys the "three-day futurist retreat or nothing" false choice: add "robustness to scenarios" as fitness criteria on strategy alternative matrix. List 2-3 plausible futures, evaluate alternatives against them—takes 10 minutes or triggers deeper inquiry when team realizes "if regulation happens this way, we're screwed." The Jamaican mobile banking case at 36:35 proves value: asking "what year will 51% prefer mobile over storefronts?" sparked one-hour debate, created written plan, enabled COVID pivot. Meanwhile competitor with 95-year-old founder refused succession planning—"externality" within the business nobody could control. Strategic lesson: scenario discipline prevents catastrophic blindness to plausible futures that destroy otherwise sound strategies. 5 Key Timestamps: [03:28] The Executive Resistance Paradox – CEOs reject scenario planning fearing they're "letting their team off the hook" by exploring multiple futures rather than demanding "go do it and get it right, succeed, execute." Confusion between exploring possibilities versus setting direction creates barrier—leaders want single clear vision without admitting they don't know which future will occur [05:25] The Single Strategy Revelation – "Every scenario doesn't get its own strategy—you only get ONE strategy and it's at the mercy of all future scenarios." Strategy exists within multiple possible futures; you can choose to ignore future scenarios when designing strategy, but it remains "at the mercy" of whichever future actually occurs regardless of whether you considered it [08:31] The Control Boundary Framework – Scenarios are external conditions you don't control (earthquakes, interest rates, regulations, wars, weather) versus internal developments you influence (product success, team capability, customer adoption). "Never forecast an invention" but overlay external scenarios onto internal assessments—full strategic view requires both dimensions with different probability treatment for each [19:15] The Plausibility Integration Technique – Pick 3 qualitatively different futures each with 5-10% probability everyone finds plausible; force team to answer "would you do strategy differently if interest rates hit 6%?" rather than "will interest rates hit 6%?" Key is connecting scenarios directly to strategy alternative choices—"at least admit you're ignoring the possibility" creates conscious risk acceptance versus blind assumption [32:29] The 10-Minute Matrix Addition – Add "robustness to scenarios" as fitness criteria on strategy alternative matrix listing 2-3 diverse future conditions; evaluation takes 10 minutes or triggers deep inquiry when team realizes vulnerability. Destroys false choice between "three-day futurist retreat or nothing"—simple discipline of writing scenarios alongside strategy alternatives and explicitly evaluating robustness integrates future thinking without separate philosophical exercise
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